In 2017, the growth rate of retail sales in the apparel industry plummeted to 1.4%, achieving an annual retail sales of 1,035.64 billion yuan. It can be seen that the downturn in China's garment industry in the new economic situation is an indisputable fact.
Retail sales of shoes, hats, needles and textiles in China in 2012-2018 and year-on-year growth
Source: Public information
Benefits Since 2017, the consumption upgrade has been deepening, the overall demand is especially high-end sectors, the retail situation of clothing and home textiles is improving, the industry destocking and brand terminal channel adjustment is coming to an end, and the manufacturing terminal continues to expand production, and the cost is reduced through overseas capacity transfer. The favorable factors such as the steady promotion of branded apparel and many brands, the 2018Q1 textile and apparel sector continued its rapid growth. Judging from the situation of 78 major listed companies, 2018Q1 achieved a total operating income of 72.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%; the net profit of the mothers reached 5.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%.
Total revenue and growth of China's textile and apparel sector in 2012-2018 (100 million yuan)
Source: Public information
Net profit and growth of China's textile and apparel sector in 2012-2018 (100 million yuan)
Source: Public information
Judging from the enterprise data on textile and apparel regulations, since 2014, the growth rate of the main business income and total profit of the company on the textile service regulations has been declining year after year, and reached the bottom in 2017. From January to April 2018, the main business income increased by 4.7% year-on-year to 0.59 trillion yuan, and the revenue growth rate stabilized and rebounded. The total profit of the company increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 31.42 billion yuan, and the growth rate still showed a downward trend. In the context of a good retail economy, the operating income of the listed companies in the textile sector and the net profit growth of the mothers are significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the enterprises on the textiles. The Matthew effect in the industry is further strengthened. .
2012-2018 China's textile and apparel regulations on the main business income of enterprises
Source: Public information
Total profits of enterprises in China's textile and apparel regulations in 2012-2018
Source: Public information
From the perspective of sub-industry performance, high-end apparel, home textiles, men's wear, and mass apparel in the eight sub-sectors have seen significant recovery. Other sub-sectors have relatively flat performances, such as footwear, underwear, and outdoor. Among them, the high-end clothing has the best climate, the income growth rate continues to increase in 15~17, and the income of 17~18Q1 keeps increasing by more than 50% (to contribute to the extension of consolidated and endogenous growth); the growth of the home textile industry has accelerated to 17 years. More than 20% and continued to 18Q1; men's wear, outdoor, footwear increased in positive growth in 17 years, and the growth rate of children's wear increased steadily. The growth rate of mass apparel and underwear in 17 years slowed slightly, but the 18Q1 rebounded, and the growth rate of popular apparel 18Q1 was obvious. Upgrading, less than 10% growth rate has increased to 22% since 17 years; sports (A-share only one noble bird (603555)) has a larger increase in the consolidation factor, outdoor is still adjusted, 17-year and 18Q1 income growth is now fluctuating .
Changes in operating income of China's brand apparel industry in 2015-2018
Source: Public information
Compared with high-end clothing (high-end women's 4 companies + high-end outdoor clothing than the sound of Lefun (002832)) and popular clothing (Huihai House (600398), Taiping Bird (603877) as the representative, can be separated from the offline retail data The company's quarterly revenue growth rate, minus the impact of external consolidation effects. The endogenous growth of high-end apparel has improved significantly since 16Q4, and has continued to maintain high growth in 17 years. Volkswagen apparel began to recover significantly in 17Q4.
The growth of endogenous income of China's high-end apparel companies in 2017-2018
Source: Public information
The growth of endogenous income of Chinese mass apparel companies in 2017-2018
Source: Public information
From the perspective of the net interest rate trend of the sub-industry, underwear, children's wear, and women's wear maintained a higher net interest rate, and the net interest rate of men's wear was significantly positive (the industry turned around and some of the companies turned losses), and the net profit margin of casual wear, footwear, and outdoor 17 years was The decline, 18Q1 rebounded.
The sales revenue of mass apparel was obviously warming up in 17Q4, but due to the adjustment of some companies' business (the US state business is still adjusting to Q4 loss, Senma destocking and expenses are increasing), the overall profitability is affected.
Changes in net profit of Chinese brand apparel industry in 2015-2018
Source: Public information
Changes in the net interest rate of China's brand apparel industry in 2015-2018
Source: Public information
From the perspective of operational capability indicators, inventory turnover in home textiles, high-end apparel, menswear and other sub-sectors has accelerated in recent years. Children's wear is in the development stage, turnover is also accelerating year by year, while outdoor, footwear and sports are fluctuating; The annual inventory turnover rate gradually stabilized, and the superimposed sales end showed an inflection point in 17Q4. It is expected that it will also enter the recovery phase and the turnover index is improving.
Changes in inventory turnover rate of China's brand apparel industry in 2015-2017
Source: Public information
Changes in Accounts Receivable Turnover Rate of China's Brand Apparel and Molecular Industry in 2016-2018
Source: Public information
Year-on-year growth rate of inventory of China's brand apparel industry in 2016-2018 (%)
Source: Public information
2016-2018 China's brand apparel industry's inventory turnover rate changed year-on-year
Source: Public information
Each sub-sector's single-quarter performance verification in the early stage of the judgment on the recovery point: Except for the recovery of the Hong Kong stock sportswear company earlier (2014), the current round of industry performance improved, the early recovery sub-sector is high-end apparel (2016Q4), home textile (2017), mid-to-high-end men's wear (2017), Volkswagen apparel has fluctuated in each quarter. Since 17Q4, it has sustained two quarters of prosperity and double-digit growth in revenue, and 18Q1 has increased to over 20%. Among them, the high-speed apparel growth rate is higher than the endogenous growth, and the combination of multiple companies and the merger effect is promoted together. The movement is due to the impact of the only company and the company on the quarterly results.
2016-2018 China's brand apparel sub-industry (except high-end women's clothing, sports) single-quarter revenue growth rate